What We Got Right and Wrong (4Q25) - Weekly Wrap

Chart of the Week

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Research This Week

What We Got Right and Wrong (4Q25)

• RIGHT: Staying anchored to the Macro Risk Indicator and the jobless-recovery framework proved correct, allowing us to remain risk-on through Q4 despite labor and housing concerns. EM over DM (especially Brazil), a tactical rebound in yields, selective FX cross trades, and a constructive commodities bias all broadly played out.
• WRONG: We didn't appreciate the implications of the Takaichi election result in Japan for the JPY and JGBs, so exited our long CADJPY too early.