The central problem investors
face is how to act despite uncertainty.
We confront this head-on by focusing on the enduring forces that have shaped markets for decades:
the business cycle, the capital cycle, quality, and crowding.
How We Deal with Uncertainty
We have built a research process that blends rigor with flexibility — learning lessons from quantitative finance and fundamental investors alike.
Quantitative Discipline
We use models to measure real-world complexity in a consistent way. By building hierarchies and mapping connections between inputs, our process works like a radar to spot changes in the market environment.
Adaptability
Markets do not stand still. Neither do our models. We use adaptive techniques such as causal discovery and natural-language processing to adjust as the world changes.
Kaizen
We borrow a simple idea from Japanese management philosophy: continuous, incremental improvement. Each upgrade to our proprietary models accumulates under a unified investment process.
The Cycles That Drive Markets
The Business Cycle
Economic data evolves in a reliable sequence that can be used to understand the business cycle.
Our leading indicators are built from empirically leading, minimally revised data and adapt through causal discovery.
We look for turning points six months ahead to identify when market pricing is not prepared for meaningful economic shifts.
The Capital Cycle
The capital cycle is one of the most important drivers of long-term equity returns.
Capital scarcity leads to decreased competition, supply constraints, and more disciplined capital allocation decisions, leading capital-starved industries and regions to outperform over time.
Conversely, capital abundant industries experience too much competition, which reduces future profit potential.
Behavioral Factors
Investing is not only about understanding how the world works, but also about understanding the players. Why is the crowd positioned the way it is?
Fundamentals alone don’t move markets. Crowding, flows, and short-term sentiment often dominate.
We build quantitative models to give us an anchor for crowding risk and short term trading behaviors.
Our Reports
We publish a structured set of research products designed to track cycles, highlight risks, and uncover opportunities:
Monthly overview of global macro conditions, asset allocation shifts and our highest conviction views.
Systematic tracking of growth, inflation, policy and liquidity signals across major economies, with a focus on actionable ideas.
In-depth reports on structural trends and big picture investment themes, from fiscal policy shifts to commodity supercycles.
Quick, data-driven updates delivered ad hoc to cover market moves or events.
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Our research is built for investors who need timely, repeatable insights.