Gold: Updating our Tactical, Cylical and Structural Outlook - Weekly Wrap

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Gold: Updating our tactical, cylical and structural outlook - April 24

• Structural bull case for gold remains intact. Cyclically, it's weakening.
• Tactically, gold's poor performance since the start of the Iran war is consistent with typical post-crash patterns resulting from the intitial January/February crash.
• On balance: still moderately bullish on gold and gold miners. They should remain a core allocation in multi-asset portfolios.

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Messy détente driving regional divergences - EM/DM LIW - April 21

• Base case: messy Iran-US détente allows policymakers and markets to look through the inflation shock and focus on growth and regional dislocations.
• UK faces meaningful growth risks (we stick to our GBP 1y1y receivers). AUD and NZD offer best “contrarian” long potential on Iran resolution.
• South Korea’s semi exposure and Value-Up policies offset to potential terms of trade shock. India faces headwinds from AI job displacement, energy shocks and the US/China limiting India’s manufacturing transition.