LEIs steady, incoming data marginally worse - Weekly Wrap

Chart of the Week

‍

***

Research This Week

LEIs steady, incoming data marginally worse - Feb. G3 LIW  | [Watch Discussion]

• US: Leading indicators are steady overall, but incoming data have worsened relative to a month ago. On balance, dissaving from the government and household sectors, along with a pick up in AI-driven capex, are supportive of growth.
• China: Growth and liquidity have worsened, even as the structural weakness in the housing and consumer sectors persist.
• Eurozone: Growth leading indicators are recovering, but structural headwinds suggest the balance of risks for EUR is still to the downside.

***

 US

• Growth: Leading indicators remain steady
• Consumer: Consumption resilient in aggregate, credit stress bubbling up outside banks
• Labor: Base case remains jobless growth
• Inflation: Set to stay above target, but disinflationary impulses are building

China

• Growth: Leading indicator turns down, liquidity deteriorates
• RMB: Struggling to get excited about RMB strength

Eurozone

• Growth: Too late to embrace optimism, too early to feel structural headwinds
• EUR: Balance of risks for EUR still to the downside

***

‍