Re-visiting our 2026 roadmap post-Iran - Weekly Wrap

‍

***

‍

Re-visiting our 2026 roadmap post-Iran - May Macro Snapshot - May 1, 2026

• In January, we laid out how 2026 was an amalgamation of three macro analogs: manufacturing recovery after rolling recession (2016), “jobless” growth with rising productivity (2003), and speculative mania with generational IPO (1999).
• The roadmap is largely intact. While Iran has muddied the “jobless” growth by restricting the Fed, manufacturing resilience and speculative equity mania (SpaceX IPO) continue to track historical analogs.
• Beyond the immediate conflict, "The Primacy of Sovereignty" structural backdrop means the Iran conflict is accelerating Chinese efforts to reduce energy dependence and shift toward BRICS payment systems.

‍

***

***

Summary

• Energy Shock Analogs: Still tracking higher oil for longer & initial equity resilience, but yields are diverging.
• Cyclical Asset Allocation: Macro Risk Indicator remains risk on, but Iran presents second-order risks in 2H26.
• Iran impact on roadmap: Manufacturing recovery resilient, "jobless” growth thesis weakened, SpaceX as Juniper Networks: on track for speculative mania with generational IPO.
• Equity: Earnings estimates still rising, we like tech + financials / healthcare / energy barbell.
• Fixed Income: Real yields remain elevated, nominal yields appropriate relative to nominal growth.
• FX: Cyclical tailwinds for stronger USD, politics remain the main bearish factor.
• Commodities: The Primacy of Sovereignty continues to drive structural shifts.

***

***

What We Got Right and What We Got Wrong (1Q26) - April 28, 2026

RIGHT: Primacy of Sovereignty structural theme drove geopolitical risks, with governments prioritizing existential needs on resources, military and technology. Capital Cycle models successfully drove overweights in Tech and Energy. We found alpha opportunities in Brazil and AUD. Tactical wins included VP correction signal trigger in March and identifying "peak uncertainty" during the Qatar facility attacks.

WRONG: We tried catching a falling knife in China Tech despite reasonable valuations. Indonesia underscored the danger of unpredictable political risk. The euro has been resilient despite our bearish views.

‍