Chart of the week
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Research This Week
Playing devil's advocate on “Sell America”
It is getting harder to ignore signs of excess in the “Sell America” story. Magazines cover it. The relative underperformance of US equities is quite extreme.
No need to overreact and abandon EM overweights.
It's just time to reassess the concensus.
The shifting of capital flows into non-US assets and the fiscal pivot in Germany/Japan are still valid. What the concensus misses, however, is the surging Chinese current account balance and its growth drag on everyone else.
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