The Variant Perception Cookbook

The best cookbooks are not how-to manuals; rather they offer inspiration to enhance one’s own cooking.

When readers pick up a copy of Noma, A Day at El Bulli or Alinea, they expect insights and not "bake in the oven at 200 degrees for 20 minutes".

Nobody gave us a "how-to-manual", but we have drawn inspiration from countless others in developing VP's analytical framework.

This is our cookbook.

We highlight 5 tools and 5 principles key to VP's process.

VP Tools

US & China Leading Indicators

A roadmap for global growth

VP Recession Signal

A real-time tool to protect capital and aggressively buy dips

Liquidity Indicators

A proven lead on the price growth of equities and commodities

Volatility Regimes & Trend-Following

A regime indicator to rotate between risk vs safe assets

Diffusion Indicators

A cleaner signal from trends in subcomponents

VP Principles

Think in Regimes

Reflexive feedback loops can occur very quickly

Seek Turning Points & Divergences

Extremes occur when market consensus is strong and leading indicators turn

Respect the Cycle

The best returns start from a point of discomfort, disgust and capital starvation

Be Data-Driven

Leading indicators tell us where to hunt and help drill down to single- names

Invert the Problem

Avoiding losers and blowups is a great way to improve a portfolio

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