Mar 11, 2021 | US Equities
We look at the performance of equities and intermarket relationships across different real yield and inflation breakeven regimes. Today, real yields are starting to drive changes in nominal yields, which is supportive for equity gains In a recent report for clients,...
Mar 5, 2021 | European Economy
Rising bond yields and tightening financial conditions pose a risk to the economic recovery and, in the euro-area, could increase the probability of the ECB formally adopting YCC The recent sharp sell-off and bear steepening in global sovereign debt markets has stoked...
Mar 12, 2020 | Emerging Markets
Global recession risks have risen but if recessionary feedback loops fail to materialise, the stimulative effect of lower yields and lower oil prices should eventually give rise to selective V-shaped recoveries. Our Stimulus Index aggregates the standardised changes...
Aug 13, 2017 | European Economy
Convergence in core-periphery sovereign credit spreads since 2012 would seem to vindicate the raft of monetary easing measures deployed by the ECB to stabilise the eurozone. This is only half the story, and the other half is decidedly negative. The eurozone collapse...
Jan 20, 2017 | Uncategorized, US Economy
S&P 500 returns are positively correlated to the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index. The Surprise Index leads the S&P 500 by about two months, as you can see from the chart on the left. Normally, low levels in the index are a good time to buy. When the...
