Equities and Yield Regimes

We look at the performance of equities and intermarket relationships across different real yield and inflation breakeven regimes. Today, real yields are starting to drive changes in nominal yields, which is supportive for equity gains In a recent report for clients,...

Steeper and Cheaper

While further gains will be harder from here, indicators continue to point to a supportive backdrop for yields and the yield curve, with the latter historically tending to steepen through US elections In our October monthly report (The Case for Banks – October...

Financial Balkanisation of the Eurozone

Convergence in core-periphery sovereign credit spreads since 2012 would seem to vindicate the raft of monetary easing measures deployed by the ECB to stabilise the eurozone. This is only half the story, and the other half is decidedly negative. The eurozone collapse...

Real Yields Wildly Mispriced Given Stagflation Light

The US now has the worst combination of outcomes, poor growth and rising inflation.  Bond yields are now the most negative they have been in almost forty years.  Only in the 1970s during stagflationary episodes were real yields this negative.    We don’t see a high...