by David Hill | Apr 12, 2019 | US Equities
Short volatility positions are back at extreme levels once again, showing the growth of complacency among market participants. The more dovish than expected Fed has allowed volatility sellers to become more emboldened, and speculative VIX future positions are back up...
by Simon White | Oct 14, 2017 | US Economy
Falling liquidity was one of the principal reasons behind our call for a flatter US yield curve this year. Excess liquidity often drops towards the end of an expansion. At the same time the relative demand for credit falls, while the central bank is reacting to...
by Bill | Nov 12, 2016 | US Economy
(from our Tactical report of 1st November 2016) Equity volatility and credit spreads are almost perfectly correlated. In part this is because equity is a perpetual option on the solvency of a firm. When credit becomes stressed, equity volatility jumps as well. You can...
by Bill | Oct 14, 2015 | Leading Indicators, US Economy
All of our leading indicators for credit spreads and volatility point to wider volatility and higher credit spreads over the next two years. The credit cycle is long in the tooth, and the best predictor of future credit spreads is the lagged growth in lending. For a...
by Bill | Jun 24, 2013 | Featured, Tactical
We have been warning clients in the past few months that volatility was set to rise towards the middle of the year. We have been flagging the almost parabolic increase in margin debt as well as our leading indicator for equity volatility. This excerpt is from our...
by Bill | May 28, 2013 | Japan
Last week’s BoJ meeting did not meet expectations of trying to soothe the Japanese bond market. Yields have shot up, with 10y yields 50% higher in May as of this morning, largely a consequence of the BoJ succeeding in raising inflation expectations. However, of more...
by Bill | May 17, 2013 | Japan
Volatility in general is still falling, with both equity and commodity volatility lower than their 2005/06 trough. However, we are seeing signs of life in interest rate volatility. US rate volatility has recently pipped up, and this has been led by a sharp increase...
