What They Will Do vs What They Should Do

Governments are becoming very concerned about the resurgence in virus cases seen since summer. In context, the rise in cases should not be too alarming. More testing means more cases will be found, and the relatively high false positive rate for the most common tests...

UK optimism has room to run

Weak sentiment and rising leading indicators combined with a supportive central bank is the best combination for asset markets. Sentiment towards the UK has been dismal, but with the ruling Conservative party’s much larger than expected victory at the General...

Outlook stable for Europe and UK consumer

With global trade headwinds intensifying and many governments still reluctant to turn on the spending taps (for now), the burden of growth remains with the consumer. In the eurozone, consumer conditions appear relatively mixed. There is a divergence between soft and...

Time to Take Profits on UK Miners

UK miners have performed well over the last year, returning 13.4% against the FTSE-All Share’s meagre return of 1.5%. Accelerating iron ore prices this year has driven this outperformance and the top chart illustrates that this relationship holds over long periods. In...

Real-Estate excesses building in UK

Net capital issuance (gross issues less repayments) in the UK has been relatively bumpy since the financial crisis as deleveraging in the financial sector has resulted in prolonged negative net issuance. However, net issuance has turned positive since the beginning of...

Use Risk Rally to buy Default Protection

This post was taken from our March 5th weekly report. In line with rebounding equity markets following the 4Q18 correction, credit risk-premia have compressed sharply. This is particularly notable for the big political risk plays of 2018. UK CDS spreads have narrowed...

Room for UK Consumer Staples to Catch Up

This post was taken from our January 22nd weekly report. In line with the global rebound, UK equities have regained considerable ground in January following the fourth-quarter sell-off. However, consumer staples have underperformed, creating a sharp divergence with...

Foreigners’ Confidence in UK Remains

The politics of Brexit have enveloped the UK, and have negatively affected UK growth. However, as recent current-account data shows, things are less bad than originally feared. The top-left chart shows that net investment into the UK has continued to rise. The total...

UK Housing Market Close to Bottom

The UK’s love affair with housing isn’t over, but it has certainly cooled of late. A combination of increased stamp duty on second homes, fewer tax breaks for buy-to-let landlords, and the uncertainty surrounding Brexit have all served to take some of the froth out of...