UK Housing Market Close to Bottom

The UK’s love affair with housing isn’t over, but it has certainly cooled of late. A combination of increased stamp duty on second homes, fewer tax breaks for buy-to-let landlords, and the uncertainty surrounding Brexit have all served to take some of the froth out of...

UK Rates and GBP hit by Disappointing Data

In our March monthly we recommended positioning for lower UK short-term rates based on our weakening long-leading indicator, and we later recommended taking advantage of GBPUSD seasonality – which has seen cable higher in each of the past 13 Aprils – to...

Bank of England Mood Changes

This post is taken from our April 24th weekly report. Much like the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England has been itching to normalise monetary policy following nearly a decade of providing emergency assistance to the economy. Buoyed by the run up in prices over the...

The UK’s Deleveraging Failure

The synchronised nature of the global economic recovery has fanned speculation that the post-crisis deleveraging in developed countries has finally come to an end. However, we err on the side of caution and cite evidence from the UK, which suggests there has been...

Negative Feedback Loop in Europe

While most of the attention post-Brexit has been on the UK, we are far more concerned about Europe.  Markets and the economy operate in a feedback loop, and the performance of European banks relative to the stock market points to a fall in lending ahead in Europe. ...

Credit in UK Booming Again; Wage Growth Has Lagged

There are continuing signs the UK’s economy is increasingly resembling itself prior to the financial crisis.  House-price growth has cooled of late, but is still growing at 4.6% YoY, down from almost 12% last summer.  Consumer credit is also growing at a healthy clip,...
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