Emerging Markets: Turkey and Mexico Beaten Up

One of the main promises of Trump’s campaign was building a wall with Mexico that the Mexicans would pay for as well as renegotiating NAFTA.  Mexico’s stock market in dollar terms is now back to 2009-10 levels.  Investors are pricing in an awful lot of bad news. ...

Twin Deficits Suggest Turkey and New Zealand at Risk

One of the simplest ways to measure macroeconomic risk is to look at the twin deficit, defined as the sum of current account and budget deficit as a percentage of GDP.  Recent blow-ups like Iceland and Greece both scored highest on these fronts.  Looking at twin...