Sep 17, 2020 | China, US Economy
The US and China recoveries are tied at the hip. Both countries responded to the pandemic in ways that suited them, with the consequence the global trade imbalance is now essentially a bilateral one between the US and China. The plunge in global trade has reduced...
Jun 4, 2020 | Emerging Markets
The unparalleled nature of the response to the COVID-19 crisis – indiscriminately triggering sudden-stops across economies – suggest that some emerging markets could be closer to crossing the Rubicon into full-blown QE. Many EM central banks already purchase...
May 28, 2020 | China, US Equities
The collision of two powerful and opposing forces has created an uncertain outlook for equity markets. Aggressive stimulus from the Fed – which Powell says has “no limits” – has caused the monetary base to surge relative to the equity market cap (top-left...
Mar 12, 2020 | Emerging Markets
Global recession risks have risen but if recessionary feedback loops fail to materialise, the stimulative effect of lower yields and lower oil prices should eventually give rise to selective V-shaped recoveries. Our Stimulus Index aggregates the standardised changes...
