Jul 29, 2015 | European Economy
For all of Spain’s entrenched structural issues (as we detailed in our April thematic, Spain – Still a Hole in Europe’s Balance Sheet), leading economic data continues to point towards a cyclical recovery in Spain. Real M1 is growing at 15% YoY, consumer confidence is...
Apr 24, 2015 | European Economy, Monetary Policy
The sharp devaluation in the euro and the rapid acceleration in economic activity will mean short-term inflation dynamics in the eurozone will soon start surprising to the upside. In this context it is important to remember that the only justification for ECB...
Aug 13, 2013 | European Economy, Leading Indicators
Variant Perception has been writing about positive leading indicators in Europe for the past 6 months and, in this light, the recent improvement in the data is coming in as expected. The cyclical recovery in Europe is real and will likely have further to go in the...
Jan 16, 2013 | European Economy
As foreseen in recent updates on Spain, the market for SGBs remains calm and spreads across the maturity horizon are tightening. Last week Spanish ten year yields fell below the 5% mark for the first time since March last year, while two year yields are now hugging...
Oct 11, 2012 | European Economy
Our Chief Editor was on Spanish television yesterday to talk about Spain’s economy and the viability of a Catalan state. You can see the interview here (in Spanish) or below....
Apr 19, 2012 | European Economy, Featured, Monetary Policy
In our view, the Spanish banking system is in need of wholesale recapitalisation to deal with the sizeable losses in the country’s property market. This will likely include a bad bank provision. Before that happens, the ECB’s open market operations will mainly buy...
Mar 5, 2012 | European Economy
Greece is in default and Ireland and Portugal are in limbo with the market pricing in a Greek outcome in both economies. However, the situation has changed in Spain and Italy and on this measure alone, the ECB’s LTRO has been successful. Italian and Spanish bond...
