Surge in EGB Issuance May Result in Lower 2H20 Supply

Feb 5, 2020 | European Economy

January is typically a very busy month for European sovereign issuance as national treasuries kick off their annual funding programmes. This year has seen a marked uptick in supply relative to the previous year as issuers have taken advantage of low borrowing costs to...

Spanish Economy Remains on Cyclical Upswing

Jul 29, 2015 | European Economy

For all of Spain’s entrenched structural issues (as we detailed in our April thematic, Spain – Still a Hole in Europe’s Balance Sheet), leading economic data continues to point towards a cyclical recovery in Spain. Real M1 is growing at 15% YoY, consumer confidence is...

ECB QE: Inflation to Start Surprising to the Upside

Apr 24, 2015 | European Economy, Monetary Policy

The sharp devaluation in the euro and the rapid acceleration in economic activity will mean short-term inflation dynamics in the eurozone will soon start surprising to the upside.  In this context it is important to remember that the only justification for ECB...

Eurozone Periphery Still at Risk

Aug 13, 2013 | European Economy, Leading Indicators

Variant Perception has been writing about positive leading indicators in Europe for the past 6 months and, in this light, the recent improvement in the data is coming in as expected. The cyclical recovery in Europe is real and will likely have further to go in the...

Jonathan Tepper, Chief Editor, Interview on Bloomberg News

May 3, 2013 | Press

Follow this link to watch from the beginning of the interview, or skip to minute 34 on the video below.

Risk Off, Or Just a Hiccup?

Feb 7, 2013 | Featured

Markets have been jittery in recent days, especially around fears that the simmering embers of the Euro Area debt crisis might be about to reignite. Bond yields in both Spain and Italy have risen this week, while concerns continue to hover about whether a calm...

Spain – It’s The Real Economy Stupid!

Jan 16, 2013 | European Economy

As foreseen in recent updates on Spain, the market for SGBs remains calm and spreads across the maturity horizon are tightening. Last week Spanish ten year yields fell below the 5% mark for the first time since March last year, while two year yields are now hugging...

Jonathan Tepper on Spanish television to talk about Spain’s economy and Catalunya

Oct 11, 2012 | European Economy

Our Chief Editor was on Spanish television yesterday to talk about Spain’s economy and the viability of a Catalan state. You can see the interview here (in Spanish).    

Spain will be difficult to contain without help and bank recapitalisation

Apr 19, 2012 | European Economy, Featured, Monetary Policy

In our view, the Spanish banking system is in need of wholesale recapitalisation to deal with the sizeable losses in the country’s property market. This will likely include a bad bank provision.  Before that happens, the ECB’s open market operations will mainly buy...