High Dividend Yield Strategies Require Care

Falling yields across the developed market world have posed greater hurdles for investors with yield and income targets. As the spread between bond yields and equity dividend-yields diverge, these investors move up the risk spectrum to meet their targets. As such, we...

A Brief Bout of Market Optimism

This post was taken from our December 4th weekly report. We wrote last week about the absence of bottoming signals for the S&P. From a price perspective, there was little to suggest a sustainable rally was on the cards, as few of the usual signs of selling...

Flatter Yield Curves a Headwind for Risk Assets

The US and global yield curves steepened briefly last summer and steepened further after Trump’s election, but it has been rolling over almost all year. This has a negative read through to growth and key risk assets. The yield curve is one of the key things we track...

Equities and Margins

P/E expansion has been an important driver of US equity returns in recent years. The left chart shows the disaggregation of returns in 5 year blocks going back to 1996. As we can see, in the years 2011-2016, 55% points of the 79% return of the S&P in that period...

No Margin Support for Equities

P/E expansion has been an important driver of US equity returns in recent years. The left chart shows the disaggregation of returns in 5 year blocks going back to 1996. As we can see, in the years 2011-2016, 55% points of the 79% return of the S&P in that period...

Retail Stocks to Suffer Due to Higher Inflation

Retail sales will suffer in the months ahead due to rapidly rising medical and rental CPI.  Whenever rental and medical costs have risen significantly in the past, they have led to a big decline in retail sales.  You can see from the chart below that Medical CPI plus...

Lower ISM Ahead, Weak Read for Stocks

The ISM Manufacturing Index came out at the beginning of the month and offers a dim view of the next three months for US manufacturing as well as for stocks.  The key data we focus on in the ISM is the relationship between New Orders to Inventory.  The ratio leads the...