Equities and Yield Regimes

We look at the performance of equities and intermarket relationships across different real yield and inflation breakeven regimes. Today, real yields are starting to drive changes in nominal yields, which is supportive for equity gains In a recent report for clients,...

Comparing Today’s Markets with 2009 and 2017

The remarkable resilience of equity markets this year, along with the general bullish consensus for 2021, has some parallels with previous price action in 2009 and 2017 In 2009, equity markets rallied against a backdrop of a terrible economy, but rising leading...

Fed No Longer the “Only Game in Town” for Stocks

US equities are beginning to behave more normally. The average pairwise correlation across S&P 500 stocks has plunged (top-left chart), which tells us that stocks are starting to move independently from one another and are no longer driven to the same extent by...

Structural Inflation Back Drop ==> Buy Dips in Gold

Inflation breakevens have been rising and real yields have been falling this year, boosting gold and silver prices. Gold and silver prices corrected this week and last week as the reflation narrative gained traction, with 10y yields rising to their highest  level...

US Recession May Be Shorter Than Expected

The official dating body for US recessions, the NBER, announced last month the US reached the peak of its expansion in February and is now contracting. The NBER defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, normally...

Revisiting Lessons from China 2015 Market Rescue

The collision of two powerful and opposing forces has created an uncertain outlook for equity markets. Aggressive stimulus from the Fed – which Powell says has “no limits” – has caused the monetary base to surge relative to the equity market cap (top-left...