by Bill | Mar 24, 2014 | Featured, North America, US Economy
One of the points we have been emphasizing to clients in recent months is that US small caps are looking increasingly less attractive compared to large caps. Small caps have benefited from excess liquidity and a belief that as the US economy recovers, smaller...
by Bill | Jan 28, 2014 | Emerging Markets, Featured, Global Economy, Tactical
Emerging markets are being blamed on just about all hiccups and bad surprises currently befalling the global economy and financial markets. However, this is slightly unwarranted and, in any case, not consistent with the evidence. Out of the 9 equity markets up on the...
by Bill | Dec 10, 2013 | Featured, Tactical, US Economy
We have showed the charts below to clients in the past few weeks. There are plenty of things to worry about (stretched market, tapering etc), but these charts are worth bearing in mind for those looking to bet heavily against the market in the next few weeks. Their...
by Bill | Nov 25, 2013 | Featured, Tactical, US Economy
Amid the choppy grind higher in US equities one key aspect for investors to look for is the prospect of the long-run relative bull market in small caps to end. If we look at the straight price ratio between the S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 it is now close to an...
by Bill | Sep 25, 2013 | Featured, US Economy
One of the most interesting developments across speculative positioning in the past weeks has been the reversal in net positioning in US stock futures. On an unsmoothed basis speculators most recently turned net short S&P 500 futures for the first time since...
by Bill | Sep 4, 2013 | Featured, US Economy
In our latest thematic report, we look at how the unconventional monetary policies of the Fed et al are having distortionary effects on asset markets and increasing their inherent instability. In the classic film The Italian Job, Michael Caine berates his motley crew...
by Bill | Jul 16, 2013 | Featured, Tactical, US Economy
Most of the talk on US equities is still centered around whether and when the Fed will start scaling back its asset purchases (let alone start raising rates). The point here is of course that if the Fed decides to remove the punchbowl, equities will take a dim view....
by Bill | Apr 24, 2013 | Featured, Global Economy, Tactical
Judging by the comments from most analysts and commentators, global equities remain the place to be and equity markets are still doing well. This is certainly true if you look at Japan, but in general it is not exactly correct. On a 1 month basis, even the otherwise...
by Bill | Feb 15, 2013 | Global Economy, US Economy
With the US stock market continuing to grind out new highs, some commentators have cast doubt on the usefulness of so-called macroeconomic surprise indices as a tool for predicting the market. To add weight to the argument, these commentators even include the...
