Reflation Sensation

Bloomberg and Google news trends show reflation headlines are everywhere. Widespread coverage is typically a sign that trends are starting to exhaust and that markets are due for a period of consolidation, before the next leg higher Our growth and liquidity LEIs...

It’s the Most Wonder-bull Time of the Year

Reflation narratives are becoming consensus, but there is little reason to be contrarian for contrarian’s sake Strategists are flooding client inboxes with year-ahead forecasts and themes, and it’s striking how similar the arguments are. The common conclusion from...

Autos will lag other rate-sensitive sectors

The auto and housing sectors are two parts of the economy that are highly sensitive to interest rate changes. In light of the Fed’s dovish pivot at the start of the year, culminating in 3x25bps of interest rate cuts, we would expect activity in both sectors to surge....

Reflation in Danger Due to Low Liquidity

Over the past few weeks we have expressed scepticism on the Trump reflation trade and we have argued that bank stocks should underperform. We have shown previously that when you look at the 3 and 6 month change in Commercial & Industrial lending as well as the...