by David Hill | Oct 11, 2019 | US Economy, US Equities
With consumer confidence measures released a couple of weeks ago, we have observed an interesting divergence between the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and Conference Board consumer confidence index (top-left chart). When we plot the spread and...
by David Hill | Jan 25, 2019 | US Economy, US Equities
This post was taken from our January 8th weekly report. We would characterise US equity indices today as being in a bear market. The official definition is a 20% decline from the recent high, close to close, but what does this mean in practice for investors? (The...
by Simon White | Aug 18, 2017 | US Economy
Earlier this year we wrote a Thematic piece on autos arguing that we would see auto companies cut prices to move inventory, idle plants and produce fewer cars. We have already seen a slowdown in car sales, and some manufacturers have guided to lower production this...
by Bill | May 5, 2016 | US Economy
Heavy truck sales are oddly a good leading indicator for the economy. It is odd because a lot of industrial production is coincident with the business cycle. However, if you go back over forty years, you can see that recessions have always been preceded by a decline...
by Bill | Feb 18, 2016 | US Economy
We discussed earlier last month how investors should not confuse the market and the economy. The market might be volatile and suffering losses at the moment, but the US economy is still ambling along. Manufacturing is likely in a recession, but the service sector is...
by Bill | Feb 26, 2015 | Global Economy, Leading Indicators, Monetary Policy
As we remind our readers often, yield curves are one of the single best leading indicators. A yield curve inversion has predicted every US recession since 1945, with only one false positive, in 1966 (although the false positive preceded a downturn in industrial...
by Bill | Mar 22, 2013 | European Economy, Fiscal Policy, Global Economy
France looks increasingly like it is slipping into recession. It is the poorest performing core country – an increasingly inapt label. Highlighting this are the latest PMI numbers. The services PMI, already woefully depressed, slipped lower last month, to...
by Bill | Sep 7, 2012 | Featured, US Economy
The US economy is currently marked by weak manufacturing, but with a housing market showing signs of a sustainable recovery. However, the Fed is focused on the job market, leaving the option open for more quantitative easing if it doesn’t begin to materially improve...
by Bill | Jun 26, 2012 | Featured, US Economy
So far the recovery in output, income and employment following the 2008/09 recession has been the weakest on record with only industrial activity appearing to buck the trend. Most remarkable, however, is the steady decline in post-recession expansions of employment...
