Feb 13, 2020 | Global Economy, US Economy
After first inverting last year, the 3m10y yield curve recently re-inverted, prompting the usual slew of mechanical recession predictions. However, not all inversions are equal. The top-left chart shows that almost all of the YTD decline in 10y yields is from the fall...
Oct 11, 2019 | US Economy, US Equities
With consumer confidence measures released a couple of weeks ago, we have observed an interesting divergence between the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index and Conference Board consumer confidence index (top-left chart). When we plot the spread and...
Jan 25, 2019 | US Economy, US Equities
This post was taken from our January 8th weekly report. We would characterise US equity indices today as being in a bear market. The official definition is a 20% decline from the recent high, close to close, but what does this mean in practice for investors? (The...
Aug 18, 2017 | US Economy
Earlier this year we wrote a Thematic piece on autos arguing that we would see auto companies cut prices to move inventory, idle plants and produce fewer cars. We have already seen a slowdown in car sales, and some manufacturers have guided to lower production this...
Feb 18, 2016 | US Economy
We discussed earlier last month how investors should not confuse the market and the economy. The market might be volatile and suffering losses at the moment, but the US economy is still ambling along. Manufacturing is likely in a recession, but the service sector is...
Feb 26, 2015 | Global Economy, Leading Indicators, Monetary Policy
As we remind our readers often, yield curves are one of the single best leading indicators. A yield curve inversion has predicted every US recession since 1945, with only one false positive, in 1966 (although the false positive preceded a downturn in industrial...
Mar 22, 2013 | European Economy, Fiscal Policy, Global Economy
France looks increasingly like it is slipping into recession. It is the poorest performing core country – an increasingly inapt label. Highlighting this are the latest PMI numbers. The services PMI, already woefully depressed, slipped lower last month, to...
Sep 7, 2012 | Featured, US Economy
The US economy is currently marked by weak manufacturing, but with a housing market showing signs of a sustainable recovery. However, the Fed is focused on the job market, leaving the option open for more quantitative easing if it doesn’t begin to materially improve...
