Tracking the US’s Labour Market Recovery

The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the...

Turkey and Hungary’s Harbinger Hikes

Given the scale of demand destruction in the wake of the global health pandemic, central banks should be nowhere near tightening monetary policy. For those that are, policy rate hikes are indicative of intensifying currency stresses and risks of a destabilising...