QE Archives - Variant Perception

US Dollar: Still Tactically Bullish into Year End

Nov 18, 2017 | Global Economy, US Economy

We continue to see a higher dollar as the path of least resistance into year end. In addition to extreme short positioning and some buy signals that we have flagged over the past few weeks, a number of other supportive factors are starting to come into play. The...

ECB QE: Inflation to Start Surprising to the Upside

Apr 24, 2015 | European Economy, Monetary Policy

The sharp devaluation in the euro and the rapid acceleration in economic activity will mean short-term inflation dynamics in the eurozone will soon start surprising to the upside. In this context it is important to remember that the only justification for ECB...

Growing number of lower paid workers in US

Feb 5, 2015 | US Economy

The participation rate in the US has declined much less for those at lower levels of education: Source: Macrobond That the lower educated are disproportionately supporting employment growth, through lower paid jobs, may help explain why, so far, we have not seen...

Eurozone Growth Stuck in a Quagmire

Aug 19, 2014 | European Economy

Eurozone growth goes from setback to setback with last week’s GDP number being just the latest in a long line of similar disappointments. Soft indicators have consistently overstated the strength of this year’s recovery, and the unpleasant truth is that as one...

Variant Perception on the US labour market and the future course of Fed policy

Jan 13, 2014 | Monetary Policy, Press, US Economy

Variant Perception’s editor Simon White spoke to BNN this morning about the future course of Fed policy and the US labour market. Highlights included the likelihood that the Fed will stay looser for longer as well as how the market may have overestimated the...

The Fed and QE – An almost impossible balancing act

Jan 5, 2014 | Featured, US Economy

A nice series of articles from Bloomberg news alerts us to the fact that the Fed is anything but united when it comes to QE. There is consequently ongoing confusion, disagreement and general apprehension surrounding whether and how the Fed is supposed to end QE ....

Anti-QE in Japan

May 28, 2013 | Japan

Last week’s BoJ meeting did not meet expectations of trying to soothe the Japanese bond market. Yields have shot up, with 10y yields 50% higher in May as of this morning, largely a consequence of the BoJ succeeding in raising inflation expectations. However, of more...

Japan Edges Towards the Cliff

Nov 2, 2012 | Asia, Fiscal Policy, Global Economy, Japan, Monetary Policy

The Japanese economy continues to weaken and a recession is now the main consensus. The country’s trade balance, which was long in surplus, is now moving deeper and deeper into deficit and the third quarter numbers almost certainly will show contraction, and these are...

ECB at the forefront of global central bank QE

Jan 3, 2012 | European Economy, Monetary Policy

Since early September the ECB’s balance sheet has expanded by 589 billion euros (about 750 billion USD) and the Fed USD swap lines are currently sitting at around 100 billion USD. The second LTRO to be conducted towards the end of February is then very likely to...