by David Hill | Nov 1, 2019 | Monetary Policy
This post was taken from our weekly report, dated October 15, 2019. In the last month yields have since then done a round trip, falling and then rising again, but crucially term premium (TP) has not fallen. It was TP’s relentless fall through 2019 that meant the...
by David Hill | Oct 18, 2019 | Monetary Policy
The divergence in monetary policy across developed markets since the beginning of 2018 is starting to breakdown as Fed and ECB easing makes it increasingly difficult for the hawkish hold-outs to tighten. Above-target inflation in 2018/early 2019 provided cover for the...
by David Hill | Jul 8, 2019 | European Economy
The apparent de-anchoring of market-based inflation expectations has started to rattle the ECB and has raised the spectre of a return to monetary easing, mirroring the abrupt shift in marketimplied policy rate expectations in the US where 65 bps of cuts are now...
by Simon White | Nov 18, 2017 | Global Economy, US Economy
We continue to see a higher dollar as the path of least resistance into year end. In addition to extreme short positioning and some buy signals that we have flagged over the past few weeks, a number of other supportive factors are starting to come into play. The...
by Bill | Apr 24, 2015 | European Economy, Monetary Policy
The sharp devaluation in the euro and the rapid acceleration in economic activity will mean short-term inflation dynamics in the eurozone will soon start surprising to the upside. In this context it is important to remember that the only justification for ECB...
by Bill | Feb 5, 2015 | US Economy
The participation rate in the US has declined much less for those at lower levels of education: Source: Macrobond That the lower educated are disproportionately supporting employment growth, through lower paid jobs, may help explain why, so far, we have not seen...
by Bill | Aug 19, 2014 | European Economy
Eurozone growth goes from setback to setback with last week’s GDP number being just the latest in a long line of similar disappointments. Soft indicators have consistently overstated the strength of this year’s recovery, and the unpleasant truth is that as one...
by Bill | Jan 13, 2014 | Monetary Policy, Press, US Economy
Variant Perception’s editor Simon White spoke to BNN this morning about the future course of Fed policy and the US labour market. Highlights included the likelihood that the Fed will stay looser for longer as well as how the market may have overestimated the...
by Bill | Jan 5, 2014 | Featured, US Economy
A nice series of articles from Bloomberg news alerts us to the fact that the Fed is anything but united when it comes to QE. There is consequently ongoing confusion, disagreement and general apprehension surrounding whether and how the Fed is supposed to end QE ....
