Apr 9, 2020 | Uncategorized
Oil prices surged at the end of last week off the back of President Trump’s tweet that signalled production cuts had been agreed with Saudi Arabia and Russia. Despite the +40% move, Brent is still down 50% on the year. Longer-dated futures contracts haven’t reacted to...
Mar 12, 2020 | Emerging Markets
Global recession risks have risen but if recessionary feedback loops fail to materialise, the stimulative effect of lower yields and lower oil prices should eventually give rise to selective V-shaped recoveries. Our Stimulus Index aggregates the standardised changes...
Dec 14, 2018 | European Economy, Monetary Policy
Market-based measures of euro area inflation expectations have shifted lower, which could point to a delay in monetary policy normalisation. The first chart below shows the EUR 5Y5Y forward inflation swap, which has dropped sharply in recent weeks. A few years ago,...
Sep 11, 2018 | Featured, Framework, Whitepaper
Bethany McLean has written a book titled Saudi America on fracking and how it might contribute to the next financial crisis. She writes: Some of fracking’s biggest skeptics are on Wall Street. They argue that the industry’s financial foundation is unstable:...
Apr 30, 2018 | US Equities
This post is taken from our weekly report dated April 3rd 2018. In our November 28th 2017 Weekly report, we recommended short-term long MLP positions into year-end on bearish sentiment and fundamental divergence of the MLP index vs crude oil prices. This worked well...
Jan 27, 2017 | US Equities
In most economic cycles, commodities rally very late in the business cycle, and often oil doubles in price before downturns. Our leading economic indicators are not forecasting an immediate economic downturn, but we are very definitely late cycle on a lot of...
Jan 20, 2017 | Uncategorized, US Economy
S&P 500 returns are positively correlated to the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index. The Surprise Index leads the S&P 500 by about two months, as you can see from the chart on the left. Normally, low levels in the index are a good time to buy. When the...
Jan 14, 2015 | Asia, Emerging Markets
A weak oil price and a strong dollar rally will put pressure on emerging markets, but valuations for many emerging markets should soon be compelling. Emerging markets have been in a downtrend relative to the S&P since 2010. We will likely see further weakness...
