Norges Bank running out of tightening room

At a time when market expectations of G10 monetary policy are rapidly shifting in the direction of fresh policy easing, Norway is a clear outlier. The Norges Bank hiked the deposit rate by 25bps last week and has alluded to the possibility of further hikes going...

Market Pricing Restart of ECB QE

The apparent de-anchoring of market-based inflation expectations has started to rattle the ECB and has raised the spectre of a return to monetary easing, mirroring the abrupt shift in marketimplied policy rate expectations in the US where 65 bps of cuts are now...

Setback to Turkish Recovery

Having appeared to have passed the worst of the economic crisis, Turkey has faced a fresh bout of turbulence in recent weeks. We have revisited our framework for identifying buying opportunities following an EM crisis to gauge Turkey’s position on the recovery path....

Fig Leaves For Raising Interest Rates

Central banks are increasingly altering the perception of their reaction functions to allow tighter (or less easy) monetary policy. At the ECB, discussion of so-called “supercore” inflation has re-emerged. This consists of the components of the HICP basket that have a...