Headwinds for US Manufacturing

The US manufacturing ISM is currently at levels last seen before the 2008-09 recession. While this reflects the recent optimism about growth prospects in the US, we see several headwinds to the industrial sector. The top-left chart shows the ISM against the VP...

The Market and the Economy

We discussed earlier last month how investors should not confuse the market and the economy.  The market might be volatile and suffering losses at the moment, but the US economy is still ambling along.  Manufacturing is likely in a recession, but the service sector is...

Manufacturing and Services PMIs Diverge

There has been a sharp divergence between ISM services and non-services in the US. Many of our leading indicators for manufacturing have pointed to weakness. This suggests demand is tilting away from manufacturing and towards the service sector.  The breakdown of the...

US Manufacturing – More Weakness to Come

US manufacturing has slowed in recent months, and we expect more to come.  We had noted the discrepancy between the PMI and ISM surveys earlier this year as it looked like the ISM was outputting data inconsistent with our leading indicators.  The ISM has now fallen...