Inflationary Build-up in EMs

As has been the case in developed markets, policymakers in emerging markets have been quick to deliver monetary stimulus in the face of an unprecedented global health pandemic. While necessary to avert a deeper drawdown in economic activity, the indiscriminate...

Plenty of Cover for Fed to Maintain the “Big Ease”

In our Market Ledger, one of the “debits” for the market is chronic insolvency. We have not really begun to see the full impact on jobs and businesses due to improved unemployment benefits, stimulus cheques and business lending schemes, but that will change as...

TLTROs are no Silver Bullet to Eurozone Problems

The ECB’s latest announced form of stimulus is a third round of TLTRO issuance. Previous tranches of TLTROs have been 4-year loans primarily made to European banks that are active in lending to the private sector. The rate paid on the loans is reduced as more of the...

The Great Brick Wall of China

In this report we discuss the outlook of the Chinese economy across a number of key parameters: re-balancing the economy, the current account/exchange rate and the risks stemming from rapid credit expansion. The central thrust of our argument is that China will not...