US Overheating Risk

The Zarnowitz Rule states that the steeper the downturn, the sharper the upturn. This was on hold while Covid-related restrictions were in place, but now we should expect to see it in full flight, turbocharged by fiscal stimulus. Overheating risks are rising The US...

Don’t Fear the Rise in Yields

The last few weeks have seen US yields breakout to the topside of the tight range they have been trading in. The market narrative is that yields have been boosted by more clarity on the US election – a Democrat win with a mooted $3.5 trillion stimulus package in...

Pandemic a Potential Trigger for QE in EM

The unparalleled nature of the response to the COVID-19 crisis – indiscriminately triggering sudden-stops across economies – suggest that some emerging markets could be closer to crossing the Rubicon into full-blown QE. Many EM central banks already purchase...