Tracking the US’s Labour Market Recovery

The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the...

US Economy Bottoming

The key difference between our recession methodologies and the NBER’s is that we rely on leading indicators to identify the end of a recession in real time, whereas the NBER prefers to wait for confirmation from coincident and lagging data, following data revisions....

Variant Perception’s Leading Indicator Watch

Each month, we produce a report which we call our Leading Indicator Watch. In it we update all our main leading indicators that give us leads on global growth, liquidity, commodities, US growth, US consumption, US manufacturing, corporate profits, volatility and...