Death by Extrapolation

Extrapolation has killed more people, companies and portfolios than almost anything else we can think of. You assume that you’ll continue to be healthy until you get that cancer diagnosis or fall to the floor from a heart attack. You assume profits will continue to...

US Growth Coming in As Expected

(The following is from our December Leading Indicator Watch (LIW), released December 4th, 2014.  The LIW is a monthly report giving a summary of all or our main leading indicators, allowing clients to forecast early on where the business cycle in major countries is...

Short leading indicators suggest strong US data ahead

Short-leading indicators for the US and global economy continue to show very strong signals mainly driven by low credit spreads and strong stock market performance.  In the past two months, we have seen a clear break-out of short-leading global indicators which is...

Jobless Expansion Trend in the US Hits New Lows

So far the recovery in output, income and employment following the 2008/09 recession has been the weakest on record with only industrial activity appearing to buck the trend.  Most remarkable, however, is the steady decline in post-recession expansions of employment...