US Growth Coming in As Expected

(The following is from our December Leading Indicator Watch (LIW), released December 4th, 2014.  The LIW is a monthly report giving a summary of all or our main leading indicators, allowing clients to forecast early on where the business cycle in major countries is...

Disappointing development in Chinese leading indicators

Our leading indicator for China has turned down further which adds to the impression of an overall weak turn in Chinese growth.  We would still term the turning point as intact, but all components of our leading indicator recently came in with negative readings. This...

Short leading indicators suggest strong US data ahead

Short-leading indicators for the US and global economy continue to show very strong signals mainly driven by low credit spreads and strong stock market performance.  In the past two months, we have seen a clear break-out of short-leading global indicators which is...

Jobless Expansion Trend in the US Hits New Lows

So far the recovery in output, income and employment following the 2008/09 recession has been the weakest on record with only industrial activity appearing to buck the trend.  Most remarkable, however, is the steady decline in post-recession expansions of employment...