by Variant Perception | Mar 15, 2019 | Featured, Framework
Extrapolation has killed more people, companies and portfolios than almost anything else we can think of. You assume that you’ll continue to be healthy until you get that cancer diagnosis or fall to the floor from a heart attack. You assume profits will continue to...
by Variant Perception | May 10, 2018 | Framework, Leading Indicators
Variant perception is the effort to become sufficiently knowledgeable about whatever the subject is, that at a time to be at variance from consensus, because one of the few sure ways to make money in the market is to have a view that is off consensus and have that...
by Simon White | Nov 14, 2017 | Emerging Markets
Each month, we produce a report which we call our Leading Indicator Watch. In it we update all our main leading indicators that give us leads on global growth, liquidity, commodities, US growth, US consumption, US manufacturing, corporate profits, volatility and...
by Bill | Apr 29, 2015 | US Economy
(The following is from our December Leading Indicator Watch (LIW), released December 4th, 2014. The LIW is a monthly report giving a summary of all or our main leading indicators, allowing clients to forecast early on where the business cycle in major countries is...
by Bill | Nov 4, 2013 | Emerging Markets, Featured, Global Economy, Leading Indicators, US Economy
Our real narrow money index continues to decline and is sending an increasingly bearish cyclical signal for the global economy and commodity prices. Our real narrow money index has now declined for 4 months running and is now tracking below 7% for the first time since...
by Bill | Apr 5, 2013 | Asia, China, Featured
Our leading indicator for China has turned down further which adds to the impression of an overall weak turn in Chinese growth. We would still term the turning point as intact, but all components of our leading indicator recently came in with negative readings. This...
by Bill | Mar 5, 2013 | US Economy
Short-leading indicators for the US and global economy continue to show very strong signals mainly driven by low credit spreads and strong stock market performance. In the past two months, we have seen a clear break-out of short-leading global indicators which is...
by Bill | Sep 7, 2012 | Featured, US Economy
The US economy is currently marked by weak manufacturing, but with a housing market showing signs of a sustainable recovery. However, the Fed is focused on the job market, leaving the option open for more quantitative easing if it doesn’t begin to materially improve...
by Bill | Jun 26, 2012 | Featured, US Economy
So far the recovery in output, income and employment following the 2008/09 recession has been the weakest on record with only industrial activity appearing to buck the trend. Most remarkable, however, is the steady decline in post-recession expansions of employment...
