BoJ to Keep Loose As No Immediate Sign of Target CPI

The set-up in Japan continues to favour a weaker yen. Inflation is coming, but the BoJ will want to be sure the train has arrived at the station before stepping off at the monetarytightening platform. The top-left chart shows the lagged effects of a weaker yen should...

Buy USDJPY Dips

Fundamentals in Japan still support a weaker JPY. Yield differentials are one of the most important drivers of currencies and, as the top chart shows, this shows that USDJPY is becoming stretched to the downside. Also, as we highlighted in our Themes for 2017, the...

Smaller Impact on USD from Fed Rate Rises

(from our Tactical of 31st May) We have long argued of a dovishly leaning Fed with Janet Yellen at the helm. The market eventually got the Fed’s message.  The total hikes priced in over the next 6 months were stable at around 80-90 bps for the last 2 years of...

The euro to be supported in risk-off scenarios (mostly)

The ECB’s commitment to extra loose monetary policy through forward guidance and QE has resulted in the euro to becoming one of the darlings of the funding currencies.  US corporates such as Nike, Apple and Coca-Cola have taken advantage of a weak euro to raise the...

Japan’s economy is running out of time and growth

The recent Q4-12 GDP print in Japan underscores the mounting pressure on BOJ and Ministry of Finance officials to act decisively on the ongoing strength of the Yen. Japan’s economy slumped to a  2.9% contraction on the year (nominal GDP, NSA) and a 0.77%...