Tracking the US’s Labour Market Recovery

The US labour market has pockets of tightness. However, it’s unlikely we’ll see rapidly rising household inflation-expectations until we see higher low-skilled wage growth and rising ex-transfer incomes Our indicators show that at this relatively early stage in the...

Credit in UK Booming Again; Wage Growth Has Lagged

There are continuing signs the UK’s economy is increasingly resembling itself prior to the financial crisis.  House-price growth has cooled of late, but is still growing at 4.6% YoY, down from almost 12% last summer.  Consumer credit is also growing at a healthy clip,...

Growing number of lower paid workers in US

The participation rate in the US has declined much less for those at lower levels of education: Source: Macrobond That the lower educated are disproportionately supporting employment growth, through lower paid jobs, may help explain why, so far, we have not seen...

US Inflation and Wages Continue to Turn Up

The key message from our leading indicators is that US inflation and wages continue to turn up.  This was one of our core themes for 2014 we discussed in December last year and is bearing out.  Core inflation and headline inflation are positive, while wages are...