Sovereign CDS Spreads Highlight Low Risk Premia

Much in the way that monetary stimulus has turbocharged equities, unprecedented low interest rates in developed and emerging markets have artificially compressed credit default swap spreads. As the charts below show, CDS spreads are anchored at the bottom end of the...

BoJ Underscores Support for USDJPY

Data and policy continue to line up for a weaker JPY. Kuroda has re-iterated his commitment to stimulus, stating, “it’s premature to discuss in an exact way about exit strategy”. Kuroda continues his battle against the deflation mindset; and, as the top chart shows,...

Buy USDJPY Dips

Fundamentals in Japan still support a weaker JPY. Yield differentials are one of the most important drivers of currencies and, as the top chart shows, this shows that USDJPY is becoming stretched to the downside. Also, as we highlighted in our Themes for 2017, the...

The Remorseless Logic of Capital Outflows from China

China is in the midst of a debt-deflationary bust.  It is an ongoing process that has gathered pace recently.  Capital outflows are a symptom of this, and a weaker yuan is an integral part of the attempted cure.  We expect more of this to come. We wrote back in the...

Japanese Equity Flows Diverge

October saw the BoJ’s announcement of increased stimulus, coordinated with the new targets for the GPIF, 25% each for foreign and domestic equities (up from 12% each), and a decrease in JGBs, from 60% to 35% of holdings.  Investors, both Japanese and foreign, have...

Where Japan Rate Vol Leads, Others Follow

Volatility in general is still falling, with both equity and commodity volatility lower than their 2005/06 trough.  However, we are seeing signs of life in interest rate volatility.  US rate volatility has recently pipped up, and this has been led by a sharp increase...

Japan’s economy is running out of time and growth

The recent Q4-12 GDP print in Japan underscores the mounting pressure on BOJ and Ministry of Finance officials to act decisively on the ongoing strength of the Yen. Japan’s economy slumped to a  2.9% contraction on the year (nominal GDP, NSA) and a 0.77%...