Structural Inflation Pressures Intact in the US

The underlying outlook for inflation in the US continues to point to upside risks in the coming years. Endless discussions between hyperinflationists and deflationists are boring and unproductive. We prefer to look at the data and the data is pretty clear. The...

Sterling’s rally to peter out on rising inflation

The Mexican peso is the only major currency to have appreciated against sterling this year (and then only by less than 1%). The trade-weighted sterling is the highest it has been since late 2008, when the currency was in the midst of its epochal devaluation. The...

UK Inflation Set to Start Rising Again

UK inflation has been falling, driven mainly by a fall in consumer demand, and last year’s VAT increase falling out of the year-on-year comparisons.  Looking under the bonnet, however, reveals a disconnect between inflation of ‘necessary’ and ‘discretionary’ goods. ...