Mar 29, 2018 | Canada, North America
This post is taken from our March 13th weekly report. In our February Monthly we suggested selling CAD, and buying Bankers’ Acceptances (BAs), the Canadian analogue of Eurodollar futures. With ~64bps of rate rises priced in from the BoC over the next year, we saw...
Mar 12, 2018 | Leading Indicators, Uncategorized, US Economy
A key risk for investors remains an US inflation overshoot. US inflation breakevens have been rising since the start the year (top-left chart), however we believe this is more a reflection of market pricing returning to fair value than the start of a self-perpetuating...
Jan 26, 2018 | Monetary Policy
Central banks are increasingly altering the perception of their reaction functions to allow tighter (or less easy) monetary policy. At the ECB, discussion of so-called “supercore” inflation has re-emerged. This consists of the components of the HICP basket that have a...
Jan 11, 2018 | Emerging Markets, European Economy
On a structural basis, Turkey has consistently been one of the most vulnerable economies to a currency crisis in light of considerable external vulnerabilities, and was flagged again in VP’s September thematic update of our debt and currency crisis framework. However,...
Jun 16, 2017 | European Economy
Macro headwinds are building up for long EURUSD positions in addition to signs that EURUSD is becoming very overbought technically. A few weeks ago we noted that EURUSD sentiment was one of the most bullish (contrarian indicator) among the 50 major FX pairs we track....
