Oct 22, 2020 | China, US Economy
The last few weeks have seen US yields breakout to the topside of the tight range they have been trading in. The market narrative is that yields have been boosted by more clarity on the US election – a Democrat win with a mooted $3.5 trillion stimulus package in...
Sep 10, 2020 | Emerging Markets
As has been the case in developed markets, policymakers in emerging markets have been quick to deliver monetary stimulus in the face of an unprecedented global health pandemic. While necessary to avert a deeper drawdown in economic activity, the indiscriminate...
Sep 3, 2020 | European Economy
Last week the Fed made a pivotal change to its inflation framework. As expected the central bank is now moving away from an inflation target to an implicit price-level target. Sweden is the only other country to have had experience of price-level targeting, in the...
Aug 20, 2020 | Uncategorized
Inflation breakevens have been rising and real yields have been falling this year, boosting gold and silver prices. Gold and silver prices corrected this week and last week as the reflation narrative gained traction, with 10y yields rising to their highest level...
Sep 26, 2019 | Uncategorized
The sharp slide in agricultural commodity prices this year has squeezed long trades, with net non-commercial futures positioning in corn now close to neutral (bottom-left chart). Corn has suffered the most precipitous drop, with high planting rates driving futures...
Aug 8, 2019 | Uncategorized
Low real interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty have helped fuel gold to being the best performing currency this year, returning over 10% against the USD. While we think gold remains a good investment in the current environment, we re-iterate our idea from our...
Jul 11, 2019 | European Economy
At a time when market expectations of G10 monetary policy are rapidly shifting in the direction of fresh policy easing, Norway is a clear outlier. The Norges Bank hiked the deposit rate by 25bps last week and has alluded to the possibility of further hikes going...
Jul 8, 2019 | European Economy
The apparent de-anchoring of market-based inflation expectations has started to rattle the ECB and has raised the spectre of a return to monetary easing, mirroring the abrupt shift in marketimplied policy rate expectations in the US where 65 bps of cuts are now...
Jun 27, 2019 | European Economy, Japan
Over the last nine months the outstanding amount of government bonds worldwide with negative yield has increased by $5.4trn to $11.7trn (using the latest daily estimate), homing in on the $12.2trn record set in June 2016. The majority is accounted for by Japan,...
