Feb 27, 2021 | Emerging Markets
Food prices are correlated with EM inflation surprises. The current surge in soft grain prices should be monitored in case it spills over into general inflation expectations Food inflation can have outsized impacts on inflation expectations due to the higher frequency...
Feb 17, 2021 | Featured, Global Economy, Leading Indicators, Whitepaper
We are on the cusp of a new commodity supercycle (from a report we issued in October 2020) Main Themes There are three big drivers of the commodity supercycle: The long era of monetary-policy dominance is over, leading to a heightening of inflation risks not seen...
Jan 22, 2021 | US Economy, US Equities
Inflation remains one of the few areas where there is not an overwhelming market consensus. We see rising inflation risks The market is running out of non-consensus narratives, now that we can see the vaccine being rolled out and the potential for a strong economic...
Oct 22, 2020 | China, US Economy
The last few weeks have seen US yields breakout to the topside of the tight range they have been trading in. The market narrative is that yields have been boosted by more clarity on the US election – a Democrat win with a mooted $3.5 trillion stimulus package in...
Sep 10, 2020 | Emerging Markets
As has been the case in developed markets, policymakers in emerging markets have been quick to deliver monetary stimulus in the face of an unprecedented global health pandemic. While necessary to avert a deeper drawdown in economic activity, the indiscriminate...
Sep 3, 2020 | European Economy
Last week the Fed made a pivotal change to its inflation framework. As expected the central bank is now moving away from an inflation target to an implicit price-level target. Sweden is the only other country to have had experience of price-level targeting, in the...
Aug 20, 2020 | Uncategorized
Inflation breakevens have been rising and real yields have been falling this year, boosting gold and silver prices. Gold and silver prices corrected this week and last week as the reflation narrative gained traction, with 10y yields rising to their highest level...
Sep 26, 2019 | Uncategorized
The sharp slide in agricultural commodity prices this year has squeezed long trades, with net non-commercial futures positioning in corn now close to neutral (bottom-left chart). Corn has suffered the most precipitous drop, with high planting rates driving futures...
Aug 8, 2019 | Uncategorized
Low real interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty have helped fuel gold to being the best performing currency this year, returning over 10% against the USD. While we think gold remains a good investment in the current environment, we re-iterate our idea from our...
