by David Hill | Feb 22, 2019 | Australia
The vulnerability of the Australian housing market should be well-known to the market by now, but there is no reason to fight this and be contrarian for contrarian’s sake. The latest housing market data in Australia continues to deteriorate and maintains the very...
by David Hill | Nov 23, 2018 | European Economy
We have previously flagged Swedish property as both a precariously overvalued asset and a risk to systemic stability given the high degree of household leverage. The scale and intensity of the Swedish property bubble is reflected in the two charts below. In real terms...
by David Hill | Nov 3, 2018 | Australia
Since 2016, our structurally bearish thesis on Australian housing has taken a while to play out as cyclical data often managed to hold up as the RBA kept policy loose and as the global economy was awash with liquidity. Now, however, as global-liquidity headwinds are...
by David Hill | Jun 28, 2018 | UK
The UK’s love affair with housing isn’t over, but it has certainly cooled of late. A combination of increased stamp duty on second homes, fewer tax breaks for buy-to-let landlords, and the uncertainty surrounding Brexit have all served to take some of the froth out of...
by Simon White | Aug 18, 2017 | US Economy
Earlier this year we wrote a Thematic piece on autos arguing that we would see auto companies cut prices to move inventory, idle plants and produce fewer cars. We have already seen a slowdown in car sales, and some manufacturers have guided to lower production this...
by Bill | Dec 2, 2016 | US Economy
Higher US yields are already leading to higher mortgage rates in the US. Building permits are one fo the best leading indicators for housing, and mortgage rates themselves lead building permits. The next chart shows the modest recovery in building permits is likely...
by Bill | May 20, 2016 | European Economy, Monetary Policy
An ongoing theme we kept coming back to throughout 2015 in the eurozone is that monetary policy tends to either too hot or too cold for the core or periphery. The ECB’s attempts to fight deflation and reflate the periphery have fuelled increases in German mortgages...
by Bill | Jun 24, 2015 | Featured, Fiscal Policy, UK
The UK’s economy is increasingly beginning to resemble how it looked prior to the financial crisis – this is not healthy and leaves the UK vulnerable to a repeat of the last crisis. In this presentation, we discuss that UK growth did eventually return...
by Bill | Apr 28, 2015 | US Economy
(from our Leading Indicator Watch from March 5th, 2015) Our leading indicator for US house prices is supportive of an improvement in price growth. One of the inputs that drives our leading index is the number of months’ supply of new homes. The continued fall in...
