Retail Stocks to Suffer Due to Higher Inflation

Retail sales will suffer in the months ahead due to rapidly rising medical and rental CPI.  Whenever rental and medical costs have risen significantly in the past, they have led to a big decline in retail sales.  You can see from the chart below that Medical CPI plus...

Earnings to Fall Further

Profit margins are declining, and we expect them to fall much further.  As you can see from the chart below, Variant Perception’s leading indicator for wages does a very good job of leading US corporate profit margins by a little over a year and a half. The message is...

Inflation Alive and Well in the US

We have focused on the theme of the misplaced fear of deflation at Variant Perception frequently over the past 18 months.  At several points, markets and commentators seem to have become preoccupied with a belief that growth-destroying deflation was imminent. Using...