by David Hill | Nov 13, 2019 | US Economy, US Equities
The S&P has been very resilient this year in the face of slowing growth, falling earnings and trade war uncertainty. However, underneath the surface, market rotations have been very bearish. Over the past year, high-yield credit has underperformed investment grade...
by Simon White | Aug 8, 2019 | Uncategorized
Low real interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty have helped fuel gold to being the best performing currency this year, returning over 10% against the USD. While we think gold remains a good investment in the current environment, we re-iterate our idea from our...
by David Hill | Dec 7, 2018 | Global Economy, Uncategorized
Gold has been in a narrow range since mid-August, and is down about 6% YTD in USD terms. It has had several opportunities to sell off more given a hawkish Fed, a rising USD and speculators going net short, but tellingly it has remained quite well supported. Today...
by Bill | Jan 13, 2017 | Uncategorized
(from our Tactical report of 10th January 2017) The major sell-off in gold in 4Q16 offers a great tactical entry to buy gold. Gold has seen significant outflows over the past 3 months: Also January is a seasonally strong month for gold: The macro picture also remains...
by Bill | Oct 21, 2016 | Tactical
(from our Tactical of 11th October 2016) Goldminers have a notoriously high beta to the price of gold, and they didn’t disappoint last week, with the GDX dropping 13% vs down 4.5% for gold. However, we have had a technical divergence buy signal for the GDX (chart...
by Bill | Dec 16, 2015 | Tactical
Over the past three weeks we have had two rare buy signals on gold. Previous buy signals have returned 5-10% over the next month. The signal is a measure of selling or buying exhaustion. The returns are very good, and while not every single signal works, the odds are...
by Bill | Jun 11, 2012 | Monetary Policy, US Economy
The US CPI is currently just above target at 2.3%, and long-term market expectations of inflation measured by the US inflation swap curve remains mid-range. This is in stark contrast to all-time lows in nominal treasury yields which appear to be pricing in almost the...
