There’s Something About the Term Premium

Feb 27, 2020 | Monetary Policy

Historically, investors have required extra yield to hold longer-term bonds instead of short-term securities to compensate them for the added uncertainty. Thus, in a “normal” world, term premium (TP) should not be persistently negative. Yet, since 2016, TP has been...

Intermarket Gauges suggest recession or risk-on

Nov 13, 2019 | US Economy, US Equities

The S&P has been very resilient this year in the face of slowing growth, falling earnings and trade war uncertainty. However, underneath the surface, market rotations have been very bearish. Over the past year, high-yield credit has underperformed investment grade...

Silver to Continue to Outperform Gold

Aug 8, 2019 | Uncategorized

Low real interest rates and geopolitical uncertainty have helped fuel gold to being the best performing currency this year, returning over 10% against the USD. While we think gold remains a good investment in the current environment, we re-iterate our idea from our...

Support for Gold rally is building

Dec 7, 2018 | Global Economy, Uncategorized

Gold has been in a narrow range since mid-August, and is down about 6% YTD in USD terms. It has had several opportunities to sell off more given a hawkish Fed, a rising USD and speculators going net short, but tellingly it has remained quite well supported. Today...

Good Entry Point to add to Gold Longs

Jan 13, 2017 | Uncategorized

(from our Tactical report of 10th January 2017) The major sell-off in gold in 4Q16 offers a great tactical entry to buy gold.  Gold has seen significant outflows over the past 3 months: Also January is a seasonally strong month for gold: The macro picture also remains...

Look for Opportunities to Re-accumulate Gold Stocks

Oct 21, 2016 | Tactical

(from our Tactical of 11th October 2016) Goldminers have a notoriously high beta to the price of gold, and they didn’t disappoint last week, with the GDX dropping 13% vs down 4.5% for gold.  However, we have had a technical divergence buy signal for the GDX (chart...

Rare Buy Signal on Gold; Potential Short-covering Rally

Dec 16, 2015 | Tactical

Over the past three weeks we have had two rare buy signals on gold. Previous buy signals have returned 5-10% over the next month. The signal is a measure of selling or buying exhaustion.  The returns are very good, and while not every single signal works, the odds are...