Dec 10, 2020 | Global Economy
Reflation narratives are becoming consensus, but there is little reason to be contrarian for contrarian’s sake Strategists are flooding client inboxes with year-ahead forecasts and themes, and it’s striking how similar the arguments are. The common conclusion from...
Jun 27, 2019 | European Economy, Japan
Over the last nine months the outstanding amount of government bonds worldwide with negative yield has increased by $5.4trn to $11.7trn (using the latest daily estimate), homing in on the $12.2trn record set in June 2016. The majority is accounted for by Japan,...
Jun 1, 2018 | European Economy
On the back of signs that Germany and the eurozone are slowing, we highlight the risk of a drawdown in Polish economic growth. Although Poland is ostensibly a domestic demand-driven economy, it is still highly trade dependent (exports + imports are above 100% of GDP)...
Jun 30, 2017 | European Economy
The DAX index is near all-time highs, and German stocks are rallying in line with other European markets. While the economic news has been good, our leading indicators for Germany are much less rosy than we would expect given stock prices. There is a big divergence,...
Apr 23, 2013 | China, European Economy, Featured, Global Economy, US Economy
Germany remains the proverbial strong man of Europe, but we are skeptical that this is a fitting moniker. Looking at exports, it is now clear that Germany and thus Europe continues to see weakness. The total value of German exports has now clearly rolled over from its...
