by David Hill | May 10, 2019 | Emerging Markets
Last month we warned that the signals from our EM crisis framework were painting a mixed picture of the Turkish economy, which suggests that investors should stay on the sidelines for now. There has been little improvement since then, with credit default swaps...
by David Hill | Feb 1, 2019 | China
VP’s China leading indicator has shown few signs of rebounding and remains in negative territory, presenting a persistent headwind to the RMB. Historically a negative China LEI has led capital outflow by about 6 months and points to further outflow pressures (top-left...
by David Hill | Aug 28, 2018 | China
This post is taken from our August 7th weekly report. USDCNH breached the 6.90 mark last week, having been under 6.30 just four months ago. This 10% depreciation has come against a backdrop of slowing Chinese growth and escalating US trade tensions. Although there...
by Simon White | Sep 29, 2017 | European Economy
With a synchronised recovery in economic activity underway, memories of the 2015-2016 deflation shock fading and a slew of benign election results (Dutch, French and German), confidence in the euro area has improved markedly since the beginning of the year and has...
by Bill | Mar 17, 2017 | China
Although both AUD and CAD are commodity currencies, given Australia’s outsized exposure to China, AUDCAD can be used as a proxy trade on the Chinese economy. AUDCAD is approaching the top of its range just as Chinese liquidity is rolling over. In our March Leading...
by Bill | Dec 31, 2016 | China
A pivotal theme for 2017 will be capital outflows from China leading to contraction of domestic liquidity. Policymakers in China managed boost domestic liquidity earlier this year by state-directed lending, but there are signs capital is leaking out at an accelerating...
by Bill | Jun 12, 2015 | Australia, Other
(from our Tactical from 2nd of June) We only have one tactical signal this week, a buy on NZD. The VP Divergence Signal looks at correlations to detect when an asset is trading out of sync with other related global macro assets. This provides a good short-term proxy...
by Bill | Jul 11, 2013 | Featured, Tactical
One of the points that we have emphasized to clients in our most recent reports has been the risk of a reversal in the USD. Fundamentally, the USD looks better than most, but nothing goes up in a straight line and speculators have been complacently long. With the...
