Oct 9, 2020 | Emerging Markets
Given the scale of demand destruction in the wake of the global health pandemic, central banks should be nowhere near tightening monetary policy. For those that are, policy rate hikes are indicative of intensifying currency stresses and risks of a destabilising...
Jul 23, 2020 | US Economy
Fixed-income volatility, after a brief burst higher in March, has settled back down again. Currency and equity volatility also surged higher earlier this year, but have not fallen back so far, with the VIX remaining at the 90th percentile over the last five years....
Jan 29, 2020 | Global Economy
Implied volatility across asset classes has receded in recent months as the barrage of global systemic risks (US-China trade war, disorderly Brexit and the manufacturing slowdown) has dissipated. Even though FX vol, along with other asset volatilities, remained...
Nov 6, 2019 | Emerging Markets
Since the peak back in April, most EM equities markets have seen declines or consolidation (top-left chart). The temptation is to view this as a buying opportunity to front-run more aggressive central bank easing (especially from eg the PBoC in China). Although we...
Sep 19, 2019 | Uncategorized
The BCB reportedly stepped into the FX market last week with a spot sale of dollars that was not accompanied by a repurchase commitment or other intervention measures – the first time this has happened in a decade. The move to stem the slide in the BRL has been...
May 10, 2019 | Emerging Markets
Last month we warned that the signals from our EM crisis framework were painting a mixed picture of the Turkish economy, which suggests that investors should stay on the sidelines for now. There has been little improvement since then, with credit default swaps...
