Jan 19, 2018 | European Economy
Sentiment in Europe has soared to its highest level since 2001. However, in Europe as elsewhere, such lofty sentiment should be taken as a warning for markets, not a green light. As we can see from the top-left chart, previous peaks in economic sentiment have...
Jun 16, 2017 | European Economy
Macro headwinds are building up for long EURUSD positions in addition to signs that EURUSD is becoming very overbought technically. A few weeks ago we noted that EURUSD sentiment was one of the most bullish (contrarian indicator) among the 50 major FX pairs we track....
Feb 24, 2017 | European Economy
(from our Weekly Update of 14th February 2017) Rising inflation in the eurozone is driving real rates lower, widening the rate differential between the EUR and other DM currencies. We look at risk-adjusted real-rate differentials by dividing real-rate differentials by...
Jun 10, 2016 | US Economy
(from our Tactical of 31st May) We have long argued of a dovishly leaning Fed with Janet Yellen at the helm. The market eventually got the Fed’s message. The total hikes priced in over the next 6 months were stable at around 80-90 bps for the last 2 years of...
Jul 15, 2015 | European Economy
The ECB’s commitment to extra loose monetary policy through forward guidance and QE has resulted in the euro to becoming one of the darlings of the funding currencies. US corporates such as Nike, Apple and Coca-Cola have taken advantage of a weak euro to raise the...
Dec 13, 2013 | European Economy, Featured
There is an interesting story this morning on Bloomberg about the travails of European automakers and the strong euro. According to Bloomberg, the already troubled French automaker Peugeot will take a €1.1 bn non-cash charge due to adverse currency fluctuations in...
