by David Hill | May 10, 2019 | Emerging Markets
Last month we warned that the signals from our EM crisis framework were painting a mixed picture of the Turkish economy, which suggests that investors should stay on the sidelines for now. There has been little improvement since then, with credit default swaps...
by David Hill | Mar 22, 2019 | Emerging Markets, UK
This post was taken from our March 5th weekly report. In line with rebounding equity markets following the 4Q18 correction, credit risk-premia have compressed sharply. This is particularly notable for the big political risk plays of 2018. UK CDS spreads have narrowed...
by David Hill | Nov 30, 2018 | Emerging Markets
We have previously highlighted that despite the global equity selloff there has been only a marginal decline in flows to emerging market equity ETFs, which suggests that investors remain committed for the time being. We have dug further into fund flows for Brazil and...
by David Hill | Sep 28, 2018 | Emerging Markets
In an almost textbook fashion, a stronger dollar and rising US rates has triggered a broad emerging market sell-off and surge in volatility. However, somewhat atypically there is little evidence so far of foreign capital bolting for the exit, despite the gradual...
by David Hill | Sep 21, 2018 | Emerging Markets
Credit risk in emerging markets has long been mispriced as the impact of unprecedented monetary stimulus and record low policy rates seemingly placated concerns about higher leverage. However, with the rise in US rates claiming its first casualties (Argentina and...
by Simon White | Nov 14, 2017 | Emerging Markets
Each month, we produce a report which we call our Leading Indicator Watch. In it we update all our main leading indicators that give us leads on global growth, liquidity, commodities, US growth, US consumption, US manufacturing, corporate profits, volatility and...
by Simon White | Aug 5, 2017 | Emerging Markets, Global Economy
The macro-economic landscape has profoundly changed since the financial crisis. Developed markets deleveraged, and emerging markets became the engine of global credit and money growth. The top-left chart from the BIS shows this very clearly. EMEs (emerging market...
by Bill | May 12, 2017 | Emerging Markets
Liquidity conditions have deteriorated meaningfully for EM equities. The left chart below shows that the steep drop in G7 Excess Liquidity points to a risk of much lower EM equity prices in about 3-4 months’ time. This materially worse backdrop for EM equities is...
by Bill | Dec 16, 2016 | Emerging Markets
In the past few monthlies we’ve warned that a strong dollar has the potential to cause emerging market crises. From a valuation standpoint, the dollar is very overvalued against almost all currencies, but rising interest rates and the appreciating momentum may drive...
