European Property Surge Set to Continue

Aggressive monetary expansion and a slowdown in construction activity have underpinned surging property prices. Both dynamics will keep fuelling the rally In the decade following the global financial crisis, unprecedented low funding costs and the search for yield...

Hidden Risks from ECB’s Pandemic Tools

The ECB’s policy response to the Covid crisis has been game changing, but has also added to the list of risks that undermine financial stability. The disruption to wholesale bank funding is a case in point In the midst of an unprecedented economic contraction, it is...

ECB May End up Absorbing all Government Supply in 2021

The ECB has provided a clear indication that additional stimulus will come in December. A further expansion of PEPP could result in the ECB purchasing most, if not all, of the EGB supply in 2021 Although the ECB left the monetary stance unchanged at their last...

ECB’s Focus Shifting to Bank Lending

The ECB has repeatedly stressed the primacy of its PEPP asset-purchase program in tackling the economic impacts of Covid, despite the importance of the bank-lending channel for the European economy, given the high degree f financial intermediation. The decision taken...

Surge in EGB Issuance May Result in Lower 2H20 Supply

January is typically a very busy month for European sovereign issuance as national treasuries kick off their annual funding programmes. This year has seen a marked uptick in supply relative to the previous year as issuers have taken advantage of low borrowing costs to...

G3 Central Banks set Tone

The divergence in monetary policy across developed markets since the beginning of 2018 is starting to breakdown as Fed and ECB easing makes it increasingly difficult for the hawkish hold-outs to tighten. Above-target inflation in 2018/early 2019 provided cover for the...

ECB piling easing pressure on BoJ

Japanese equities have fallen out of favour with foreign investors over the past four years, since the initial euphoria of Abenomics faded (top-left chart). This has contributed to Japanese equities’ relatively low valuations, with the Topix becoming increasingly...

TLTROs are no Silver Bullet to Eurozone Problems

The ECB’s latest announced form of stimulus is a third round of TLTRO issuance. Previous tranches of TLTROs have been 4-year loans primarily made to European banks that are active in lending to the private sector. The rate paid on the loans is reduced as more of the...

Money markets show no faith in ECB to hike

This post was taken from our December 4th weekly report. While attention will inevitably be focused on the upcoming ECB monetary policy meeting in December and the expected end to asset purchases, money markets are increasingly pushing back against higher policy...