US Unemployment Rate is Not its Former Self

Structural factors are ensuring that the unemployment rate in the US today is not what it was in periods past.  Yellen has seemed to be more in the camp that the decline in the labour participation rate (PR) since the crisis has been mainly cyclical in nature and...

The Great Brick Wall of China

In this report we discuss the outlook of the Chinese economy across a number of key parameters: re-balancing the economy, the current account/exchange rate and the risks stemming from rapid credit expansion. The central thrust of our argument is that China will not...

UKRAINE FLIRTS WITH DEFAULT

Following the pattern we have identified in other countries in the region, Ukraine is once more getting itself into a deeper and deeper mess.  Part of the problem is political, part of it is economic, and part is a combination of the two.  Moreover, Ukraine has one of...

Update on demographics in the US

A recent article by the US Population Reference Bureau produces some great charts and information on demographics in the US. We are structurally bullish on the US economy largely because the economy’s demographics do not exhibit the same characteristics as other...