What CDS Markets are Discounting

While equities and commodities have collapsed, alongside widening corporate credit spreads, sovereign CDS have not reacted to the coronavirus crisis as might be expected. CDS spreads have widened, but current spreads pale in comparison to the 2008 financial crisis...

A Primer on the Euro Breakup

At the start of 2012, Variant Perception’s research team wrote a paper on the best way to break up the euro. A lot has happened since this paper was written. However, it still provides a clear, solid analysis of the problems leading up to the current situation....

A Primer on the Euro Breakup

Default, Exit and Devaluation as the Optimal Solution In this piece we look at the mechanics of a currency breakup and how it would happen. This piece is longer than most of our pieces and is a slightly more wonkish piece than usual, but the first two pages provide a...