by Bill | Sep 30, 2016 | European Economy
(from our Tactical of 13th September) Drivers of the euro are showing support. When the ECB in March of this year shifted its emphasis from the rate channel to the credit channel for the transmission of monetary policy, this took a weight off the euro. Since that...
by Bill | Aug 31, 2016 | UK, Uncategorized
In this short blog, we will show how we looked at the UK economy going into the UK’s referendum to leave the EU, and why our approach meant our forecasts were not reliant on the referendum’s result. We also show what our indicators are telling us now....
by Bill | Jan 19, 2016 | UK
The UK’s reliance on foreign capital is astounding. This is crucial to appreciate the broad-based decline in sterling we have seen over the past 6 months. As we have reminded clients frequently over the past 2 years and more, the UK now runs the largest twin...
by Bill | Jun 24, 2015 | Featured, Fiscal Policy, UK
The UK’s economy is increasingly beginning to resemble how it looked prior to the financial crisis – this is not healthy and leaves the UK vulnerable to a repeat of the last crisis. In this presentation, we discuss that UK growth did eventually return...
by Bill | Apr 30, 2014 | UK
Much has been made of the made of Chancellor George Osborne’s success with austerity and the UK’s eruption back into growth, confounding his critics. However, ‘austerity’ has been more of a publicity exercise. Government spending as percentage of GDP has fallen only...
by Bill | Nov 2, 2012 | Asia, Fiscal Policy, Global Economy, Japan, Monetary Policy
The Japanese economy continues to weaken and a recession is now the main consensus. The country’s trade balance, which was long in surplus, is now moving deeper and deeper into deficit and the third quarter numbers almost certainly will show contraction, and these are...
by Bill | Aug 14, 2012 | Emerging Markets, Featured, Global Economy
In principle, a negative current account should not be a problem for Indonesia given the economy’s strong demographic profile, but the slump in external demand will expose the strong credit growth in the domestic economy. A deteriorating current account deficit...
