RUBCAD to Catch up to Crude Oil

RUBCAD tends to be a FX pair that’s highly correlated with moves in Brent (top-left chart). The main appeal of RUBCAD as a relative-value trade against crude is that there is much less direct US dollar exposure from the trade. Both Russia and Canada are dependent on...

Turkey: A Recipe for Inflation

On a structural basis, Turkey has consistently been one of the most vulnerable economies to a currency crisis in light of considerable external vulnerabilities, and was flagged again in VP’s September thematic update of our debt and currency crisis framework. However,...

MLP Diverges from Crude and Credit Markets

There is a notable divergence between how energy Master Limited Partnerships (MLPs) are trading in the US compared with the crude oil and high yield markets. Energy MLPs tend to be highly sensitive to credit market conditions as well as commodity prices. The top two...