Mar 19, 2020 | Global Economy, US Economy
A common question in recent weeks is whether today is like 2008? The price action is certainly reminiscent of the wild intra-day swings in the stock market we saw back then, with the level of the VIX, which closed at 83.6 recently, greater than the previous all-time...
Mar 22, 2019 | Emerging Markets, UK
This post was taken from our March 5th weekly report. In line with rebounding equity markets following the 4Q18 correction, credit risk-premia have compressed sharply. This is particularly notable for the big political risk plays of 2018. UK CDS spreads have narrowed...
Sep 21, 2018 | Emerging Markets
Credit risk in emerging markets has long been mispriced as the impact of unprecedented monetary stimulus and record low policy rates seemingly placated concerns about higher leverage. However, with the rise in US rates claiming its first casualties (Argentina and...
Oct 23, 2017 | US Economy
In August, we had reviewed a few charts showing that US high yield valuations were divorced from fundamentals, as well as to other yield products. This week, refreshing those charts, we can see that things are just as bad. US high yield seems to be the most vulnerable...
Aug 5, 2017 | Emerging Markets, Global Economy
The macro-economic landscape has profoundly changed since the financial crisis. Developed markets deleveraged, and emerging markets became the engine of global credit and money growth. The top-left chart from the BIS shows this very clearly. EMEs (emerging market...
Nov 12, 2016 | US Economy
(from our Tactical report of 1st November 2016) Equity volatility and credit spreads are almost perfectly correlated. In part this is because equity is a perpetual option on the solvency of a firm. When credit becomes stressed, equity volatility jumps as well. You can...
