Apr 22, 2021 | US Economy
The Zarnowitz Rule states that the steeper the downturn, the sharper the upturn. This was on hold while Covid-related restrictions were in place, but now we should expect to see it in full flight, turbocharged by fiscal stimulus. Overheating risks are rising The US...
Jan 14, 2021 | European Economy
Aggressive monetary expansion and a slowdown in construction activity have underpinned surging property prices. Both dynamics will keep fuelling the rally In the decade following the global financial crisis, unprecedented low funding costs and the search for yield...
Nov 19, 2020 | China, European Economy, Global Economy, US Equities
Excerpt from November 10th: The US and China are the current engines of growth, keeping the global recovery on track. A vaccine only reinforces the recoveries in China/US, and should eventually put Europe back on a stronger footing The three main engines of global...
Oct 22, 2020 | China, US Economy
The last few weeks have seen US yields breakout to the topside of the tight range they have been trading in. The market narrative is that yields have been boosted by more clarity on the US election – a Democrat win with a mooted $3.5 trillion stimulus package in...
Aug 13, 2020 | US Economy
Inequalities that existed before this crisis have been amplified by it. One place where this is prominent is in markets. Interest-rate sensitive sectors are seeing a marked outperformance due to their heightened sensitivity to liquidity. Technology has also benefited...
Jun 25, 2020 | US Economy
In our Market Ledger, one of the “debits” for the market is chronic insolvency. We have not really begun to see the full impact on jobs and businesses due to improved unemployment benefits, stimulus cheques and business lending schemes, but that will change as...
Jun 4, 2020 | Emerging Markets
The unparalleled nature of the response to the COVID-19 crisis – indiscriminately triggering sudden-stops across economies – suggest that some emerging markets could be closer to crossing the Rubicon into full-blown QE. Many EM central banks already purchase...
