Flatter Yield Curves a Headwind for Risk Assets

The US and global yield curves steepened briefly last summer and steepened further after Trump’s election, but it has been rolling over almost all year. This has a negative read through to growth and key risk assets. The yield curve is one of the key things we track...

Corn breaks higher; more upside ahead

About a month ago, we flagged a buy signal on spot corn for clients. Corn has rallied about 10% since then and more upside is ahead. Corn prices have been a strong downtrend since mid-2012 declining to the same levels seen in 2009-2010 before the rally in 2011....

Twin Deficits Suggest Turkey and New Zealand at Risk

One of the simplest ways to measure macroeconomic risk is to look at the twin deficit, defined as the sum of current account and budget deficit as a percentage of GDP.  Recent blow-ups like Iceland and Greece both scored highest on these fronts.  Looking at twin...