by Bill | May 27, 2017 | China
China’s FX reserves stabilized for the third month running, in a sign that China has made some serious headway in tightening capital controls. The top chart shows that PBoC selling of FX reserves has not been significant since January this year. The bottom-left chart...
by Bill | Apr 7, 2017 | China
Chinese excess liquidity does a good job of leading asset prices as well as China-related commodities. We define excess liquidity as M1 money growth minus Inflation minus economic growth. This captures how much excess money there is beyond what the real economy can...
by Bill | Mar 17, 2017 | China
Although both AUD and CAD are commodity currencies, given Australia’s outsized exposure to China, AUDCAD can be used as a proxy trade on the Chinese economy. AUDCAD is approaching the top of its range just as Chinese liquidity is rolling over. In our March Leading...
by Bill | Mar 10, 2017 | China
PPI in China has swung from deflation to relatively high inflation over the last 6 months. Wholesale prices are rising fast, import prices are also rising due to the lagged effects from a weaker yuan are moving sharply higher. (CPI, especially core CPI, had been...
by Bill | Dec 31, 2016 | China
A pivotal theme for 2017 will be capital outflows from China leading to contraction of domestic liquidity. Policymakers in China managed boost domestic liquidity earlier this year by state-directed lending, but there are signs capital is leaking out at an accelerating...
by Bill | Jan 27, 2016 | China
China is in the midst of a debt-deflationary bust. It is an ongoing process that has gathered pace recently. Capital outflows are a symptom of this, and a weaker yuan is an integral part of the attempted cure. We expect more of this to come. We wrote back in the...
by Bill | Dec 3, 2015 | Emerging Markets
Capital outflows from emerging markets continued into the second quarter of 2015. Once again the outflows mainly emanated from China and from CEE and Russia. The flipside is growth Treasuries held in custody for foreign accounts is stuck at zero percent. This is a...
by Bill | Aug 5, 2015 | Emerging Markets
We discussed in April that global reserve assets had begun to fall on an annual basis. This has continued, and the level of contraction is now as great as it has been since at least 2004. Capital flight from EM is gathering pace as growth slows and fear mounts over...
by Bill | Feb 26, 2014 | China, Emerging Markets, Featured, Global Economy
Many emerging markets were in recession last year and are only slowly emerging. Tight financial conditions and flat to inverted yield curves will make the recovery slow and fraught with risks. Global growth will be lower as a result. Flattening and inverted yield...
