by David Hill | Jan 22, 2020 | China
There has been much commentary pointing out low inventories for industrial commodities and the potential for a squeeze higher in prices. Inventories are indeed very low (as shown in the top left chart using LME warehouse data) but this seems to have been a persistent...
by David Hill | Jun 7, 2019 | China, US Economy
With the US-China trade dispute escalating further, we have returned to our previous analysis on export similarity to gauge the potential winners from a prolonged trade war. China’s exports are predominantly low-to-medium tech, which indicates a potentially high...
by Simon White | May 29, 2019 | China
The spectre of China selling USTs has risen again as trade tensions between the US and China heighten. The basic assumption is that US rates will go sky-high and the USD would plummet. However, there are several reasons to think the net effect would not be so...
by David Hill | Feb 1, 2019 | China
VP’s China leading indicator has shown few signs of rebounding and remains in negative territory, presenting a persistent headwind to the RMB. Historically a negative China LEI has led capital outflow by about 6 months and points to further outflow pressures (top-left...
by David Hill | Aug 28, 2018 | China
This post is taken from our August 7th weekly report. USDCNH breached the 6.90 mark last week, having been under 6.30 just four months ago. This 10% depreciation has come against a backdrop of slowing Chinese growth and escalating US trade tensions. Although there...
by David Hill | Aug 16, 2018 | China, Global Economy
The meteoric rise in Chinese exports now appears to be losing steam with world export market share falling by 1%-point over the last two years and potentially mirroring Japan’s long-term retrenchment. While the sluggish pace of world trade growth since 2008 has...
by David Hill | Aug 9, 2018 | China, Global Economy
With China taking the brunt of the escalating trade war, we have identified several economies that could benefit from China’s loss (assuming that President Trump continues to focus on China and does not pursue blanket tariffs on all exporting nations). To gauge this,...
by David Hill | Jun 14, 2018 | China, Emerging Markets
Our macro-driven model of expected industrial commodity returns (the CRB Raw Industrials Index includes non-exchange traded commodities such as burlap, rubber and lead scrap) has turned persistently negative, triggering the regime to shift to bearish from neutral (top...
by Simon White | Aug 5, 2017 | Emerging Markets, Global Economy
The macro-economic landscape has profoundly changed since the financial crisis. Developed markets deleveraged, and emerging markets became the engine of global credit and money growth. The top-left chart from the BIS shows this very clearly. EMEs (emerging market...
