May 7, 2020 | Emerging Markets
Brazil has so far avoided an aggressive national lockdown, but is nonetheless at the mercy of unprecedented demand destruction in developed markets and the collapse in global commodity prices. With the Bovespa losing 50% of its value in USD terms, the bad news, and...
Sep 19, 2019 | Uncategorized
The BCB reportedly stepped into the FX market last week with a spot sale of dollars that was not accompanied by a repurchase commitment or other intervention measures – the first time this has happened in a decade. The move to stem the slide in the BRL has been...
Nov 30, 2018 | Emerging Markets
We have previously highlighted that despite the global equity selloff there has been only a marginal decline in flows to emerging market equity ETFs, which suggests that investors remain committed for the time being. We have dug further into fund flows for Brazil and...
May 10, 2018 | Framework, Leading Indicators, Whitepaper
Variant perception is the effort to become sufficiently knowledgeable about whatever the subject is, that at a time to be at variance from consensus, because one of the few sure ways to make money in the market is to have a view that is off consensus and have that...
Jul 28, 2017 | Global Economy
BIS data allow one to see where foreign leverage is building up, and in what currency. Over half of cross-border banking claims are in USD, which represents a large structural short for the USD. Any financial panic that spreads globally is highly likely to kickstart a...
May 25, 2016 | Emerging Markets
We turned bullish on Brazil back in February. Our leading indicators had been turning up, the effects of previous Selic hikes had begun to recede, and we expected inflation would fall, opening up the path for interest-rate cuts. Year-to-date, Brazil has delivered...
Jan 14, 2015 | Asia, Emerging Markets
A weak oil price and a strong dollar rally will put pressure on emerging markets, but valuations for many emerging markets should soon be compelling. Emerging markets have been in a downtrend relative to the S&P since 2010. We will likely see further weakness...
Aug 29, 2013 | Emerging Markets, Global Economy
One concrete example where the recent sharp drawdown in the FX rate may herald better times ahead is in Brazil. As in most other emerging markets, a weaker currency is a double – edged sword. If it happens too quickly it can cause a run on FX reserves and add to...
Jul 8, 2013 | Emerging Markets, Featured
Our leading indicator for Brazil continues to imply significantly higher growth in Brazil and the economy is starting to respond. Of course, recent positive growth surprises have taken a backseat to the increase in EM market volatility . The Brazilian real has...
