by Variant Perception | May 10, 2018 | Framework, Leading Indicators
Variant perception is the effort to become sufficiently knowledgeable about whatever the subject is, that at a time to be at variance from consensus, because one of the few sure ways to make money in the market is to have a view that is off consensus and have that...
by Simon White | Jul 28, 2017 | Global Economy
BIS data allow one to see where foreign leverage is building up, and in what currency. Over half of cross-border banking claims are in USD, which represents a large structural short for the USD. Any financial panic that spreads globally is highly likely to kickstart a...
by Bill | May 25, 2016 | Emerging Markets
We turned bullish on Brazil back in February. Our leading indicators had been turning up, the effects of previous Selic hikes had begun to recede, and we expected inflation would fall, opening up the path for interest-rate cuts. Year-to-date, Brazil has delivered...
by Bill | Jan 14, 2015 | Asia, Emerging Markets
A weak oil price and a strong dollar rally will put pressure on emerging markets, but valuations for many emerging markets should soon be compelling. Emerging markets have been in a downtrend relative to the S&P since 2010. We will likely see further weakness...
by Bill | Aug 29, 2013 | Emerging Markets, Global Economy
One concrete example where the recent sharp drawdown in the FX rate may herald better times ahead is in Brazil. As in most other emerging markets, a weaker currency is a double – edged sword. If it happens too quickly it can cause a run on FX reserves and add to...
by Bill | Jul 8, 2013 | Emerging Markets, Featured
Our leading indicator for Brazil continues to imply significantly higher growth in Brazil and the economy is starting to respond. Of course, recent positive growth surprises have taken a backseat to the increase in EM market volatility . The Brazilian real has...
