Nov 12, 2020 | European Economy
The ECB has provided a clear indication that additional stimulus will come in December. A further expansion of PEPP could result in the ECB purchasing most, if not all, of the EGB supply in 2021 Although the ECB left the monetary stance unchanged at their last...
Jul 23, 2020 | US Economy
Fixed-income volatility, after a brief burst higher in March, has settled back down again. Currency and equity volatility also surged higher earlier this year, but have not fallen back so far, with the VIX remaining at the 90th percentile over the last five years....
Jun 4, 2020 | Emerging Markets
The unparalleled nature of the response to the COVID-19 crisis – indiscriminately triggering sudden-stops across economies – suggest that some emerging markets could be closer to crossing the Rubicon into full-blown QE. Many EM central banks already purchase...
Apr 16, 2020 | Global Economy
While equities and commodities have collapsed, alongside widening corporate credit spreads, sovereign CDS have not reacted to the coronavirus crisis as might be expected. CDS spreads have widened, but current spreads pale in comparison to the 2008 financial crisis...
Feb 5, 2020 | European Economy
January is typically a very busy month for European sovereign issuance as national treasuries kick off their annual funding programmes. This year has seen a marked uptick in supply relative to the previous year as issuers have taken advantage of low borrowing costs to...
Feb 17, 2017 | US Economy, US Equities
Higher economic growth usually translates into higher bond yields, higher stocks and rising oil prices; but, too much of a good thing is bad for stocks. Over the past few weeks, we’ve shown that our stock/bond RSI signal has triggered. We now have an Inflationary...
Nov 28, 2016 | US Economy
(from our Tactical of November 8th 2016) Bond yields have been rising in most countries, and yield curves have steepened across the developed world. As the top chart shows, the rise in nominal yields has come from a rise in inflation breakevens, while real yields...
